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"The rich who have mansions by the sea should not receive government subsidies." Geraldo Rivera

media call it "gasolinazo" because they seek to pressure the government to suspend the adjustments in the price of gasoline. In my view, however, these increases are modest and should gradually rise.

This past May 14 Magna gasoline rose 8 cents to fetch 9.16 pesos per liter. Is an increase of 0.72 percent. It can hardly be called a "gasolinazo" even though the increase is the fifth year. Assuming that the price of Magna climbed 8 cents per month for 12 months, rising would amount to about 96 cents, 8.7 percent above the level of 09.08 pesos per liter in April.

More than this increase, which lags far behind the increases that have occurred in the world, I am concerned that the Government was doing damage to the environment and the economy of the poorest Mexicans with a petrol subsidy of 100 billion pesos in the 2011, three times what was originally planned for this year.

The main damage done by subsidizing gasoline is also promoting greater use of this fuel. The advanced countries have had to pay higher prices for gasoline in recent years due to increasing crude oil prices and this has served to significantly reduce the use of gasoline. One consequence is the reduction of emissions of air pollutants at a time when this is considered essential to reduce global warming.

Mexico has been in the opposite direction and becoming more pollution. In 2006, according to figures from Pemex, the country sold 601 000 Magna 800 barrels of gasoline each day. March 2011 reached a level of 755 thousand 200 barrels per day. This is an increase of 25 percent in just five years in gasoline cheaper and more polluting. This increase automatically cancels all that the Government is making efforts to reduce carbon emissions to atmosphere.

The problem of gasoline subsidies, however, is not limited to pollution. In fact, this subsidy represents a regressive transfer of resources from poorer to richer.

More than 40 percent of the population of our country lives in poverty. A very high percentage in this group is completely devoid of its own assets. In fact, his only real wealth is the part you played in the country's oil resources, which supposedly belong equally to all Mexicans.

Instead of receiving dividends as shareholders, Pemex could be distributed among the Mexicans, which do more to help you have less, the Treasury Department is using 100 billion dollars of income from oil monopoly, three times what it spent on the Ministry of Public Security, to subsidize motorists, who represent 20 percent richer society .

One of the reasons why Mexico has so many poor people is that we have built a hacienda system that robs the poor to subsidize the rich. In the case of gasoline subsidies that transfer is not only extremely regressive, but also fills the skies of pollution. Far from challenging the modest increases in the price of gasoline, we should demand a true gasolinazo, leading prices of the fuel to levels currently prevailing in our trading partners. Tenure


Eruviel Avila, the PRI candidate to the State Government of Mexico, promised to eliminate vehicular tenure if he wins the election next July 3. This joins a populist and regressive. Remove the holding means those who can not buy a car to subsidize the services that are provided to motorists, much more prosperous than they are. Sergio Sarmiento


www.sergiosarmiento.com

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Subsidizing gasoline as the zero rate on food and medicine is the worst injustice that makes the Mexican tax system against the poor. Unfortunately a group of populist demagogues, especially the PRI, PRD and PT, continue to press for such subsidies remain widespread. A general allowance has the most benefits, not the poor. Subsidies should be directly not widespread.

gasolinazo And if we speak, the PRI did in the 70's, 80's and 90's these if they were gasolinazo. With increases of 30, 50 and up to 100% overnight for another, without warning. Now they are small, and throughout the year do not reach even 10%. And yet we are subsidized gasoline. Enough of the mentality Third, we hope that all the resolution of the government, give us all free. Reflect on it.

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gasolinazo middle-class teachers Paradoxes

(May 12, 2011) .- Among the personal privileges and scholars who have achieved and I Hector Aguilar Camin over the last year are meeting with members of the SNTE. Since June last year, in every city we visited organized a meeting with an average of 100 teachers, sectional leaders, school principals and supervisors. Many, many thoughts that these encounters lead us. But one has to do with the contrast between the reality of the Mexican master verbalized and socio-economic reality reflected in hard data.

Basically the theme is the same Humberto Moreira posed with his "miserabilist" effective perhaps, but false: Mexico is a country with increasingly poor, with a smaller middle class, and the only way put an end to this situation is to return the PRI to power. Teachers obviously do not share that view, but sometimes expressed equally distorted vision of reality and of the country.

In one case, when we hear yet again the old song of the rural poor primary school teacher who teaches in the shade of a tree in a desert plain, our correspondent asked if he could give us the percentage of primary schools in Mexico that are rural. Responded that about 70 percent: a figure so far from the truth as close to his heart. In fact, if we look at the numbers, the million-plus elementary school teachers of the SNTE are already part of that vast lower middle class to which they referred Luis Rubio and Luis de la Calle, and inspired by the OECD writing them in a book coming out this week: "Tomorrow or the day after. The mystery of the Mexicans" (Aguilar).

The May issue of Nexus, dedicated to education, including an article by Sylvia Ortega Salazar, rector of the National Pedagogical University and former Secretary of Basic Education, which reproduces the findings of a survey conducted in 2010, among teachers. Leave aside the part of the educational views of themselves and teachers as well as data on age, seniority, promotion via the post, and so on. I'll stick with the social.

80 percent of teachers in Mexico have their own home, 63 percent car; Cell 80 percent and 74 percent computer at home, 81 percent internet. In any imaginable sense these are data from an urban middle class with an education level higher than the average Mexican: 75 percent say they have a degree from an institution of higher education dedicated to teacher training (how much the meal is normal schools another story.)

Perhaps the most interesting of all is his self. A staggering 83 percent describes himself as belonging to the middle class. Federico Reyes Heroles had unearthed similar data for Mexican society as a whole, in a survey in 2001 and says in "The Bicentennial Opportunity." He remarked, quite rightly, that in the case of all Mexicans the data is obviously false, and contains more aspirational connotations: 82 percent of Mexicans would be middle class, when a lot today are 56 or 57 by percent.

But in the case of teachers, both higher educational attainment as the socioeconomic realities described in the survey cited in Nexus, it may be that that 83 percent aspirational but not substantive (status who have legitimately won the Over the past 20 years). It is an impressive figure for those who still believe in rural Mexico, poor, illiterate, sick and pre-modern golden age of education Cardenas.

another thing altogether if the education that these teachers taught middle class is what the country needs, deserves and pays. I think not, and I think they have a major responsibility for this failure. But not because they are "the wretched of the earth", but precisely because the middle class. Jorge G.

Castañeda
jorgegcastaneda@gmail.com

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Teachers have greatly improved their socioeconomic conditions in the past 15 years along with the rest of Mexico. Today the middle class is more than half of the population. None of this was 20, 30 or 40 years. How sad that the teachers themselves do not recognize the improvement and sold to the highest bidder (political parties, HONEYCOMB, Elba Esther Gordillo) to keep their cushy without improving the educational level of children and youth.

And yet there are those who say we are worse than ever.

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national strategy

you ask who has the required age as to whether the country sees that today is better than 30 or 40 years.
you will see more than you think you are going to say no, three or four decades ago the country was better.
However, those who failed to see Mexico for a long time do not think so.

few days ago talking to a person who worked in our nation in the early 90's and just returned, and I noted that it was impressive the perceived positive change in our country in recent 20.
It is similar with foreign investors. While not failing to recognize the problems that exist in many cases tend to see many advantages in our economy, and the ability of labor or the size of our domestic market, which seldom appreciate locally.

Some examples of long-term differences.

GDP per capita in real terms in 1981, three decades ago, was 69 thousand 174 pesos at 2008 prices. This year is estimated at 84 000 469, which means that today there is a higher income by 22 percent.

But see another relevant indicator.

In 1970, only 6.3 percent of population aged over 15 had completed secondary level or higher. In 2010, this percentage was 35.8 percent, almost six times the proportion of three decades ago.

At the other extreme, 70.5 percent of the population over 15 years was out of school or just complete primary school. That percentage is now 19.8 percent, ie a fall of 71 percent.

The infant mortality rate is one of the most important development indicators. Just in 1990 there were 39.2 deaths within a year per thousand births. This parameter was of 13.7 per thousand last year.

I will not bore you with more indicators but development indicators can be displayed in abundance.
This, of course, does not mean you ignore the 50 percent of poor people in the country, nor the slow growth of the economy over the past two decades.
How can we explain the fact that the face of these developments there is a perception that things have worsened in Mexico?

I think there are two explanations.

One has to do with insecurity. Not only public insecurity, but legal, employment, social relationships, in families, in the future.
Increased insecurity deteriorates our quality of life and makes us believe that the past was better.
The other aspect is about unfulfilled expectations. Beyond the improvements achieved, we have gained a sense of missed opportunities.
Those old enough may remember that in the 90 perceived the possibility of making Mexico a developed nation, which was frustrated by the 1995 crisis and the disaster it caused.
Then, when political change occurred in 2000 also seemed to come a chance to make a big jump, which also was frustrated.

It appears that for years live with that paradox of which we speak, it is not perceived in the short term a real possibility that the country can take that giant leap to convince us that we are now really better.

Enrique Quintana
enrique.quintana @ reforma.com

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Change

Again, this new march against insecurity, seeking peace, calls for a change of strategy the federal government. However, among the proposals made by marchers do not read any short term, all are medium and long term (education, values, judicial system, fight poverty, etc..), Including some even offer agree with organized crime. None of them is useful to stop the convoy of gunmen who today walks the streets and roads in the country, killing, stealing, extortion, and kidnapping innocent people.

And to top it up to call for stop using armed forces in fighting crime when they are the only institutions (Army and Navy) that have achieved tangible results. Today the laws and the Constitution require the executive powers of the 3 levels of government to combat organized crime (although governors and mayors do not). The use of force, weapons, by the State fighting crime is not optional for the Executive. It is mandated by law

If you want to change that strategy, the recipient of the slogans of the demonstrators should be the Congress to amend laws, approve any of the 16 initiatives money laundering that are frozen and the National Security Act that would regulate the use of armed forces, and a debate and eventual legalization of drugs. All that is pending in Congress. Unfortunately, while we remain in a party-in which politicians are not accountable to citizens, there is little hope.

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Why not grow

Mexico is advancing at a mediocre pace decades, despite various structural reforms that were implemented between 1985 and 1994. This poor performance has sparked interest within and outside the country.

A recent example is the December 2010 Journal of Economic Literature, which featured two articles about Mexico ("Why Mexico Is not Rich?" Written by Gordon H. Hanson, and "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth? " by Timothy J. Kehoe and Kim J. Ruhl).

These papers raise crucial questions and findings, while not definitive, agree on the most visible obstacles to the growth of our country. The items are similar, so I mention the former.

Hanson said that the economic reforms during the 1990s succeeded in their macroeconomic and financial stability, but have failed to generate an accelerated rate of economic growth. A comparison with other countries shows a grim picture.

The lag of Mexico, says Hanson, is not explained by institutional weaknesses that it shares with the rest of the Latin American region where some countries have managed to grow rapidly. Nor is explained by the increasing violence associated with crime, as it became more evident after 2006, too late to explain the country's economic morass.

Hanson believes that our low growth is due to deep structural impediments, rather than short-term problems, such as the overvaluation of the peso would . He reviews several studies on the subject, several Mexican authors to conclude that our problems are due to internal factors such as inefficient credit markets, distortions in the provision of non-tradable inputs, and perverse incentives that encourage informality and slow productivity growth.

Credit is crucial for economic development. A country can not take advantage of opportunities for productive investments if there are no effective mechanisms to shift resources from creditors to debtors.

A growing number of studies mentioned the weakness in credit markets in Mexico as an important factor behind the low growth in productivity. The author notes that a problem has been the risk of expropriation and other poor monitoring of bank credit. The financial reforms that followed the crisis of 1994-95 improved regulations, but did little to stimulate commercial credit.

Hanson concluded that the main reason for this lag is the difficulty creditors to be made of the assets of debtors , despite the new Bankruptcy Act, which in practice does not provide adequate protection to rights creditors.

regard to the provision of non-tradable inputs, Hanson notes that Mexico stands out as having high electricity prices , high prices for telecommunications services and a shortage of skilled labor, due to poor public schools and regulations and labor market rigidities . This author emphasizes

that poor educational performance in Mexico can be attributed to the capture of the education system by the teachers union . About 90 percent of spending on education in Mexico is going in compensation to staff, leaving little for buildings, computers and other educational infrastructure.

Regarding informality, Hanson mentioned that there is evidence that increased social security coverage for informal workers increases employment in the informal sector. Therefore, social protection programs in Mexico may be increasing incentives for informality, possibly limiting growth.

Kehoe's article and Ruhl came to similar conclusions, identifying barriers to growth as the existence of inefficient financial institutions, weak rule of law and labor market rigidities .

Based on these studies, what kind of reforms Mexico needs to apply to resume rapid growth? In principle, improve the operation of the financial system, strengthen the rule of law, limiting the power of public unions and formalize and labor market flexibility . It also needs to boost productivity growth through greater competition in oil, electricity, telecommunications and transport.

These reforms do not differ from that for years have been proposed in the country. The real issue is, therefore, that our politicians have not had the ability or willingness to implement them , and there is no reason to believe that that will change in the near future.

Salvador Kalifa
salvadorkalifa@prodigy.net.mx

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still needed deep structural reforms, including labor, as well as a frontal attack on the informal (tax reform) and zero public monopolies (energy reform, open energy sector ) and private (mainly communications, telecommunications reform), in addition to educational reform. All remaining tasks of the Congress. And we saw with the recent freezing of the proposed labor reform and policy by the PRI, who are opposed to changes in Mexico. PRI does not care to be given structural reforms because such reforms would end up with estates of power, with access to large sums of money from the Treasury via the trade unions and monopoly (PEMEX and CFE). Reflect on it.

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Mexico

There are his tendons, muscles, joints, internal organs, your injuries. Over the last week and during the debate on political reform, the country just watch an ultrasound of the PRI. Just witnessed a deep auscultation party that is close to returning to Los Pinos, despite presenting symptoms undemocratic. And the diagnosis says good things about the health of a body which claims to be modern, but hides frozen tumors, bone wear, extended lymphomas. The biopsy that Congress leave the operating room is full of atrophied cells, which seek to reproduce at the expense of citizens and balances. PRI-sonography performed in the lower house, presents a body that still contains the worst pathologies of the past.

pathologies evident in the opposition to the re-election as a universal mechanism for political and professional accountability. The opposition to independent candidacies as a spur to force the parties to air out, open, reform. Opposition to the citizens' initiative that would allow 200 000 citizens legislative initiative whose production legislators and the President currently monopolize. Opposition to the referendum in which 1 million 600 thousand citizens could promote referendums to participate in the definition of major national issues. All of them measures no longer seek to regulate how power is distributed, but how it enables better and more representative. All measures that the PRI reformers and reactionaries Senate passed the PRI in the House of Representatives just rejected. And the sonographic scan, which usually requires a range of 2 to 18 megahertz to reveal the soft tissue of a body, here only needed the order of a man.

intervention Enrique Peña Nieto. Sending an image "live" and in real time from Toluca, the cradle of the resistance to changing needs of Mexican democracy. Sending a scan to discover the muscles Toluca corporate clientele cavities, surfaces bowed servile Governors, congressmen lined up, kneeling peasant unions. Lawmakers head turned into nurses in the State of Mexico, who do not seek to cure the patient but to sell. Do not look back to health but put into a coma as he was for 71 years. Peña Nieto wanders the hospital corridors with white coat, hair standing, comforting smile. But no one measure surgical support can reinvigorate our ailing body politic, to remedy our ailing democracy dysfunctional, back foot using a transition can not walk forward.

Instead, Enrique Peña Nieto insists counter cure. Sold as a magic elixir would push Mexico to the prostration, euthanasia, the permanent bed. The return of the evil "governability clause" whereby the party that won 35 percent of the votes obtained more than 50 percent of the seats. The return of the PRI bulldozer that was used for decades to overturn the executive to the legislature. Justified by the argument, presented by former Attorney Edomex, Navarrete Prida, "that with her" let's avoid this pilgrimage (the jerking of the reforms) and let the people vote, not a fictional representation, to governance the country. "

"Governance" PRI-style, meaning an unchecked presidential system that produced crisis after crisis, disaster after disaster, mistake after mistake . "Governance" authoritarian style, meaning decisions from the executive and the legislature imposed. "Governance" centralist style, defined as the management of the economy from Los Pinos. With disastrous results as well Gabriel Zaid reminds us: "This was and so we went." bank nationalization of 1982. The inflation crisis of 1985. The crash of 1987. The 1994 economic debacle . The use of a unified government to wipe out balances and limit competition, restrain the debate. The use of legislative majorities to protect privilege, prop up authoritarian actors perpetuate impunity.

That's what I want to Peña Nieto and that slowed the process of political reform in the door. Because modernity proclaims, but wants to resurrect the mechanisms that impede its achievement. Because it argues that "one should not legislate on its knees" when he wants that to be the position if Members take it up to the presidency. Because he says so, "with legislative majority, could make structural reforms, when the first freeze. And the State of Mexico Governor ultrasound has just released the notes: undemocratic abnormalities and birth defects in the project for the country that want to deliver PRI.

Denise Dresser

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Chavos under 30 years, Denise Dresser is masterfully describes the true PRI, the PRI always. The one who suffered in the 70's, 80's and 90's. For those who live in those times and know what happened, we understand that the last 10 years, with all its problems, have been much better than the previous 30 years. Low inflation, a digit, a growing middle class, fixed-rate mortgages, car loans, etc. Before the gasolinazo were twice overnight. The increases on fuel (still subsidized) we have now, are nothing to those who passed in the 80's and 90's. Ask your parents, your grandparents. Those were real crises that impoverished the country. Let not return.

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Uses Ultrasound PRIistas the PRI majority

a couple of years ago, after the midterm elections, the PRI had much to celebrate. Through its alliance with the Greens, became, again, in the first force in the Chamber of Deputies. There was a new majority. The change did not seem minor. The lower house was already a core leader. The PRI and its allies were in control arithmetic of that assembly. No agreement needed with others to achieve the majority needed to pass a bill. The agreement of the Covenanters enough. To keep this alliance and green tricolor, the House could walk, finally. This was celebrated

the then national leader of the PRI after 12 years as a minority, driving the PRI became the House. But walking is not enough to have two legs. You need to decide where to go. That is what has been revealed: the PRI can regain power (in the House of Representatives got it), but is not able to chart the course. The PRI may be the majority in the House, but do not know what they want. You can not keep saying does not act by government failures or difficulties of plurality. He has not done anything with their majority. The PRI has taken control of the House of Representatives to make it veto assembly ... even their own proposals. Nothing is done is his conviction. That nothing has been done is his pride.

Change 2009 in the House of Representatives not only benefited the PRI, but to a particular clique. The Governor of the State of Mexico became, by the demographic weight of their country and, above all, by the magnetism of his candidacy, the big factor in the PRI. He responded without a doubt the national PRI leadership and leadership in the House of Representatives. Operators -So called-are the key players in each piece of legislation.

Hence, the political state of Mexico is portrayed indirectly in the conduct and the word of his envoys. Peña Nieto speaks rudimentary president of PRI. For him speak its many spokesmen in the House of Representatives who theorize the appropriate delay everything. Mexico is the country that can stop until they return. Enrique Peña Nieto may have shown signs of political skill, but not vision. There will be driven with their cunning and effective relief, but has been unable to practice within their party leadership reformer. Today can only responsabilizársele of legislative paralysis we suffer.

The downtime is rich in excuses. A good collection of stonewalling, excuses and justifications have been given the family PRI club members to explain the stubbornness of his denials. You need, of course, a lot of imagination to explain why the country is stopped PRI initiative themselves had written.

In March, the Institutional Revolutionary Party filed a labor reform bill which will soon be disowned. After formal presentations, the PRI became aware that they should study it again. A real scandal that portrays a party that does not take seriously its own majority. His justifications are grotesque and be much more expensive if the climate of public demand was higher in the country. A party presents a proposal and, upon receiving the consent of other political forces, shies. That is the PRI of Peña Nieto.

After a long time, the Senate achieved important agreements for institutional reform. Each and every piece of change have been discussed intensively in the country over recent years. No one who has lived in the world of Mexican politics in the last decade could be said surprised by what the Senate approved. But the PRI deputies react as if it were written in Chinese reform and will need time to translation.

argue that reform is needed her to give her most to the President and if that is not approved, not approved anything. May speak of many pending institutional reform but this reform turned the page of the electoral reforms and came to the chapter on democratic governance. The changes approved in the Senate were important. Tended to the professionalization of the legislature, oxygenates the party system, democracy aired with new processes and actors, filling a dangerous gap that continues to threaten the stability of the country. Any occurrence, no improvisation: cautious reforms and, in my opinion, beneficial. But in the face the resolution of the Senate, Members of the Service de Peña Nieto yawn. That is the response of the PRI faction of club members: a public yawn. No hurry, as bury reform say their disdain.

PRI is likely to regain the Presidency. Beltrones the senator's question is right: what they want power? Pena Nieto has responded this week: we want to have it.

Jesus Silva-Herzog Márquez
http://blogjesussilvaherzogm.typepad.com/

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Peña Nieto wants most artificial Congress to ensure that if the PRI returns stay too long. Run for Congress does not require artificial majorities, which is concerned is that the incentive system that lawmakers have changed. Today act that way because his political future depends on the party leadership. If the legislator's political future depended more of himself, his work, and the relationship with their constituencies, would be less subject to pressure from leaders party and the governors.

not required to remove or reduce multimember lawmakers. What is needed is that the way they are chosen change, so that, similarly, the incentives that make decisions, change. The multi-member should be chosen among the best second and third places of the losing candidates in 300 districts, in the case of Members. Thus the famous multi-member lists, which are assessments of the party leaders, de facto power, the president and governors, would be history and all depend on themselves legislators.

How hard can it be to legislate something? Only lack political will of legislators themselves. It is an impasse, but hopefully that will soon be broken.

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not see it or hear it

Desperate to make you a little story, Carlos Salinas de Gortari is campaigning for "Here 'toy." (Do not forget me now that we will regain the presidency. The PRI needs intellectual weight). He has published two books of a kilo, as if the weight give weight to arguments, and now ("Against the official story," Reforma, April 25, 2011) uses an article of mine ("From finance to Los Pinos", Reforma, February 27, 2011). Seeks to refute a report by Dante Delgado Rannauro as chairman of the Special Committee to Determine the Causes of Lower Financing for Development and the large amount of public debt and the instrument by specifying responsibilities and propose corrective actions in order to Encourage Growth Internal Market and Promote the Development of the Country (sic) of the Senate (Senate Gazette No. 120, April 16, 2010, pp. 18-48).

What official history? In Mexico: A difficult passage to modernity (p. 379) says that "the end of my government, only deliver around 500 thousand jobs in the bureaucracy, very low level for a country with 90 million inhabitants." Then (above) denies "some [who] have spoken of several million bureaucrats, though without citing sources." I wonder you do not know the source: Carlos Salinas de Gortari, Sixth Report of Government 1994, Statistical Annex, p. 37, table "Employment in public sector economic activity", the first line (1980) gives a total of 3.15 million, which rises to 4.07 million in 1992 (bottom row). What, then, the "hard data" that requires me not to "repeat the stereotypes of the official story? What is the true official story? Half a million or four million bureaucrats?

Although I explained this at the time ("Why will not jobs," Reforma, November 30, 2003), repeated the lie on his second book with the same straight face that said: neither see nor hear them. " In both book and article insists on washing your hands for the economic disaster left. According to him, everything was the fault of President Zedillo (without acknowledging, at least, that was wrong to appoint him.) And uses the label of the phrase "December mistake" he invented to burn. But the currency crisis that started with six years of Zedillo was the outbreak of errors accumulated during the administration of Salinas. Without doubt, the Treasury Secretary ephemeral Zedillo ineptly handled the rocket that had left. It could have been juggling the outbreak was delayed a few weeks, maybe a few months. But the disappointment and distrust of fairy tales Salinas was going to explode anyway.

The danger was pointed out since the beginning of the Salinas administration by Anne Krueger (The Mexican program of trade and exchange rate Reforms, 1989), which became the number two in the IMF, and in a later paper (Nominal Anchor Exchange Rate Policies as a domestic distortion, 1997) says that the most notable of the 1994 crisis was that it had exploded before (p. 29).

the end of six years, the error of Salinas was already in the textbooks as an example of what not to do. In Macroeconomics, sixth edition (pp. 608-609), Rudi Dornbusch and Stanley Fischer explained to students how they produced the 1982 Mexican crisis and how in 1992 "many observers were aware of how destructive it would repeat the cycle. " But in Mexico it was argued that the deficit reflected a heavy investment that would generate the revenue needed to repay loans. "Under this scheme, in a few years the current account deficit would be reduced, and meanwhile was financed without risk. A nice explanation for how long? ". In the ninth edition (p. 506) added: Intentionally, we have made this without changes, was to emphasize the phrase "A good story, But for how long?". According to our notes, was posted on October 14, 1992. The 1994 crisis "was predictable and was predicted" (was Both Predictable and predicted).

Sebastian Edwards and Moises Naim compiled a book on the crisis (Mexico 1994: Anatomy of an Emerging-market crash). Of special interest are the views of Rudi Dornbusch (who was a consultant in the Salinas team), Robert L. Bartley (editor of The Wall Street Journal and a friend of Salinas) and Francisco Gil-Diaz (Secretary of Salinas).

To Dornbusch (pp. 125-140), "The responsibility is totally (squarely) of former president Carlos Salinas and his obsessive preoccupation with inflation." "The depreciation remained well below inflation, which helped curb inflation, but it meant a position increasingly competitive business. " "In 1993, a devaluation was possible, and certainly the president Salinas considered that option in the spring of that year (or at least said so in private)." But he trusted, and now came the 1994 elections. "The reserves fell to unmanageable levels, the debts are dollarized, shortened maturities. Had to keep playing music that no one realized the emperor has no clothes. Naturally, all the measures that sought to prolong a year dying strategy help to understand the severity of the crisis that followed "(p. 131).

For Bartley (pp. 141-163): "The issuance of tesobonos was a disastrous mistake." Cetes paid less than the dollar but were guaranteed [to inspire confidence]. "A lot of debt in cetes [dollars] was displaced by the tesobonos [dollarization]. Tesobonos debt rose from 3.1 billion dollars in late March to 29.2 before the devaluation of December. " "President Zedillo must be stressed," I got a bad hand of cards (was an exceedingly bad Dealt hand). " For

Francisco Gil-Diaz and Carstens (pp. 165-200) that in the six years of Zedillo were senior officials of the Bank of Mexico: "The bank was privatized in the races, and in many cases without due respect to the appropriate selection criteria (Fit and Proper) of the new shareholders and top executives. " "It eliminated the legal banking [that left all the credit in the hands of the new bankers without experience, without control of central banks and with an extraordinary amount of money to lend wrong]." "The ability to monitor the banks were weak, and was overwhelmed by the growing portfolio of banks. " "Mexico had no effective credit bureaus." "There was a phenomenal expansion of credit given by the development bank." "Foreigners were allowed to buy short-term domestic instruments [entry without control of footloose capital, that the slightest concern is leaving]. "Tesobonos were issued short-term dollar-indexed pesos since late 1991."

The commission report cited Salinas Zedillo is not centered, but in the banking disaster. Salinas prefer not to mention The Senators charge that he privatized the banking discretion, without having made a public auction (p. 42) and note that in November 1994 before Zedillo took office, the balance of tesobonos had risen to 16.110 billion (p. 45), five times the amount in March.

Administration of the truth during the administration of Salinas attained a rare perfection. For his administration announced the recovery of the legendary "stabilizing development": a nearly 6% growth and low inflation at the international level (National Development Plan 1989-1994, p. 56). Multiplied optimistic and reassuring statements. Renegotiation of foreign debt in 1989 was a good thing, but presented on television as a feat worthy of patriotic fervor: Mexico resurgent singing the national anthem while waving the tricolor flag. At a cost of many millions of new textbooks was the official story that teaches children, in which Mexico, through the centuries, had reached its climax in the glorious era Salinas.

Salinas Compact Group discussed privately, but once adopted a line formed one seamless and sought to impose its decision as the truth: no more line than ours. Victor L. I was Urquidi told, repeatedly, privately warned the governor of the Bank of Mexico which was dangerous monetary policy was being followed, but was completely ignored. What I was told that when expressing the same as guest speaker for Econometric Research Center of Mexico, a Bank official upbraided him with a lack of respect that shocked everyone. Of course, if some entrepreneur dared to say that the peso was overvalued, he would be hot flashes. If the newsletter of a brokerage firm expressed doubt, the owners received a call. And if someone remembered that there was still poverty, was disqualified: "Poverty is a great myth." All the problems had been resolved. Mexico was already a First World country.

Lies presented with such confidence and an air of professional who many believed them. For example, the lie that the external debt had declined in proportion to GDP. To understand the ropes of this admirable event How to lie with statistics, we must remember that the external debt is denominated in dollars and GDP in pesos. To split the debt between the GDP, convert the debt to GDP in pesos or dollars. But with what kind of change? If the peso overvalued, it appears that the GDP "grows" (In dollars), although actual production has not grown, and it seems that the debt is reduced in proportion to GDP. Therefore, the proportion fell beautifully, but in fact, total external debt was growing faster than GDP. In the six years, GDP grew 18% and 38% of total external debt. The story was a fairy tale.

PRI The years that were a feast of lively accounts to conceal the collapse. It is understood that the PRI today (willing to be seen as a new option) does not want to carry that political cost, and pretend that Salinas is in Ireland, making deep studies in the Gazette of the Senate. Neither sees nor hears.

Gabriel Zaid

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Carlos Salinas is a jerk. He begins to criticize and try to clear his name and his administration but without providing data, PRI-style with nothing but demagoguery. Gabriel Zaid In this paper puts in place and with hard data. The Salinas administration hatched the crisis of December 1994 and during that time kept a tight control of media and information. Salinas and ruled from 1989 to 2004 and Peña Nieto has ruled the State of Mexico, debt, lies and a lot of media coverage. Explain your vote.