The prophecies of Ray Kurzweil
Ray Kurzweil, who with his book "The Age of Spiritual Machines" has shocked the scientific world with his prophecies. And he has differences of others that were theoretical or experimental scientists (I mean who do not develop practical or commercial applications) and in many cases science fiction writers. Kurzweil is an eminently practical science and was the creator of some mills as Optical Character Recognition (OCR; the current "TextBridge" Xerox is based on its patent), computer interface devices designed for blind and deaf, and such programs as the Kurzweil250 musical composition. Besides having received eight honorary doctorates, the post of advisor of two presidents and the award for the Best Inventor of the Year (Best Inventor Award, 1988),
reductionism is always in the mind of every scientist and Ai takes the idea of Reverse engineering and applies it to the processes of the mind. He says: A computer is faster than the human brain in some things, but the trick is to have the richness, subtlety and depth of our thinking. To achieve this will be key intelligence software, based on reverse engineering, copying the human brain works. Our brain circuits are dimensional and are based on a very complex connections. Scanning the brain can create a replica and artificial three-dimensional circuits using nanotubes (microscopic tubes) we can emulate their performance and create an advanced artificial intelligence. The American professor Andreas Nowatzyk already working on a project to copy the brain of a mouse. It is a first step in what will come next.
is also the one that highlights the possibilities of technology and repeats with Vingen that sees no limits to technological development. The technology represents a break with the slow biological evolution and entry into a faster process. Many scientists have a perspective Linear and see the future as a carbon copy of last retouched. That is a mistake. We are in an exponential growth phase in which a confluence of information technology, biotechnology, quantum physics, nanotechnology ... This century will equal 20,000 years of linear development.
Kurzweil believes that one should not classify the development of computers with the current state of the PC and says computer technology the situation is far from static. Today computers are emerging with a capacity of twenty or thirty years ago was considered impossible and can not forget that in 1997, a computer beat Kasparov, at least in chess. There were so many comments that were much more difficult human behaviors to imitate the course of chess. It's true. In many fields, for example, writing a book on computer-the computer capacity is still small. But as computers continue to purchase capacity at a rate of exponential rate, we will occur in such other fields as well as to Kasparov in chess.
As Minsky is unhappy with his brain and finds that the neurons, although they are wonderful creations, they do not have built as they are, since much of its complexity is dedicated to maintaining their own life processes, not their ability to manage information. Y coincides with other cyber punk, in which neurons are extremely slow, the electronics are at least a million times faster.
Also shown are dissatisfied with your body what it says: The intelligence is the ability to solve problems with the help of limited resources, including time. The problems we solve are often related to our body to protect, feed, clothe, meet their needs and desires. Spend much of our thinking to our body: a disembodied human intelligence quickly become depressed.
To which add: Thanks to nanotechnology, we placed tiny robots in the brain to improve capacity. Build biological entities with copies of the human brain and have people with thousands of microscopic robots in the brain, increasing their ability to think and live in virtual reality. And hopes that 2030 is the human brain can send billions of nanobots that will communicate wirelessly with tens of millions of different points in the brain. In this way we combine our biological intelligence with non-biological. End up looking completely non-biological entities, with copies of human brains derived from reverse engineering and biological human beings whose intelligence will have been improved thanks to the billions of nanobots that will have on the brain and also may exist in virtual reality. At that point, we can not distinguish between humans and machines.
Kurzweil is the most technologically of all, places great emphasis on nanotechnology and unlike Minsky's not feasible to think in 100 years, he considered came in 2020. Believes that the key application of nanotechnology in 20 years, will be the nanorobots or nanobots. Within our bodies and brains, the nanobots will allow us to extend the life destroying pathogens and cancer cells, repairing DNA errors, destroying toxins and waste, and reversing the aging process. The nanobots are robots based on computer small enough to travel through our circulatory system.
also hopes that nanotechnology will lead us beyond the limits of biology to improve our physical and mental capabilities by factors of many thousands, even millions, and eventually replace our fragile bodies "version 1.0" for a vastly improved version 2.0.
Among its many important predictions are scanning the brain and then install it on other non-biological, and achieve total immersion virtual. And he thinks that virtual reality environments integrate all the senses at the same time be able to improve the intelligence may be think faster, more complex thought and download the knowledge, and dreams of these virtual reality environments between 2030 and 2040 to compete with real environments and according to him, non-biological entities can have human-like bodies and Furthermore, thanks to nanotechnology, may also have them in reality
And consider as well as transhumanism (which we'll talk later.) that humanity is not the end of evolution but the beginning. To which I say:
"We have seen the drama of evolution as a billion years that led inexorably to its grandest creation: human intelligence. The emergence in the early twenty-first century, a new form of intelligence on Earth that compete with human intelligence and ultimately significantly exceed, will be a more important than any that have shaped human history. No less important than the creation of intelligence that created it, and will have profound implications for all aspects of human endeavor that, even in the nature of work, human learning, government, war, art and the concept of ourselves ... What we are discussing is in my opinion the next stage of evolution through the merger between humanity and technology. "
Now let's see what they consist of his prophecies:
2009
A home computer performs one trillion calculations per second. Practically, no cables are used, although there are still keyboards. The appearance of high-resolution PC has changed. Now they are everywhere, can be embedded in clothing, jewelry, or have the size of a small thick book. The texts are usually generated using natural language recognition. Routine commercial transactions are conducted largely between a human and a virtual personality. Often the virtual character looks human. The phone-translators are commonly used in many language pairs. The Bioengineered treatments for cancer and heart disease have reduced mortality from these causes. Neo-Luddite movement * is expanding. 2019
The home computer ($ 1,000) has reached the computing power of a human brain. Computers are now largely invisible. On the walls, on tables, chairs, clothing and jewelry, inserted into the body. Devices Virtual Reality (VR) in three dimensions are commonly used in communication. Most of the interaction with machines occurs through gestures or dialogue in natural language. Starts to apply the nano-engineering (mills one billionth of a meter, molecular context.) Many communication channels are installed shot automatic driving systems of vehicles. People begin to establish relationships with virtual personalities, using them to classmates, teachers, caregivers lovers. Virtual artists displayed in all branches of art. 2029
A computer system for $ 1,000 (the equivalent of one of the old home computers) have the computing / calculating a thousand human brains (2 * 1019 calculations per second - cps). Biological implants for the eyes and ears were used to establish a direct connection to the network global computer. Seamlessly. Of the retina to the network have been improved neural networks for broadband connect directly to the human brain. Are becoming available neural implants to enhance the visual and auditory perception, memory, reasoning and human calculation. Automated agents begin to learn on their own, and there is a certain amount of knowledge being created without human intervention. The vast majority of communications are not made between people but between one person and one machine. Can not clearly distinguish between the human and machine. Virtually no human work in industry, agriculture and transport. The most prevalent occupations are educational. A growing proportion of working time is devoted to education and learning. Basic living needs are covered for most of humanity. Life expectancy continues to increase, and now is around 120 years. A branch of psychology begins to investigate the consequences of this increased life span. Personalized drugs do not produce sequelae. They are designed according to each specific DNA, which has long been completely decoded. Begin the claims about legal rights of computers, and there is a debate about what constitutes "human." Machines claim to be conscious. No one is shocked by it. 2049
The common use of food nanoproducidos, with the correct nutritional composition and the same taste and texture of organically produced foods, leading to food availability no longer affected by limited natural resources, climate, or oxidative deterioration. Swarms of nanorobots are able to create visual-tactile projections-hearing people and objects in the physical world. It is no longer the physical world and virtual reality: there are several layers that intersect. It can act on several at a time (admittedly confusing) or taking several personalities in each layer of reality. The computers are designed entirely to themselves, this produces a greater acceleration in the development of digital intelligence. 2099
Human thought and artificial intelligence have merged, the companies controlled cyborg. Since there is no distinction between humans and computers. Many conscious entities do not have a permanent physical presence. Some claim to be human intelligence, even though their brain cells are not composed of carbon, but electronic and photonic equivalents. Effective legislation protects MOSH humans (with carbon neurons), devoid of neural implants. These early humans are unable to participate fully in dialogue between humans and processes in place, enhanced humans. Most of the information is transmitted using standard protocols of knowledge assimilated, that is, protocols that make that information is instantly understood. Languages \u200b\u200blike English and English are still used (especially among MOSH), but are part of a set of traditions and folklore to which demands respect and protection by the legislators. The picoingeniería (computing Pico meter level: one billionth of a meter, the environment of subatomic particles) has everyday applications. Is in developing femtoingeniería (milbillonésima scale underground level within quark.) computer capacity and calculation was estimated (using a variant of Moore's Law, which shall be considered possible until 2018), overall, to be accessible on the network for any entity that needs reaching a total of 1055 cps. Not to mention * quantum computing, which is usually extended, and whose power can not be estimated with the same methods (equivalent to 10355 cps). In this context, become meaningless concepts such as life expectancy. Mortality is a problem that can be considered the way it did a century earlier. Rather, there is a civil movement called "destroy-all-the-back." Any intelligent entity would required, before the end-voluntarily, with all your "files" to make a number of copies provided by law. The movement "destroy-all-the-back" calls for the possibility of extinction by destroying all copies of the mind or intelligence who wish an end. Immortality is what is becoming a problem ... For these prophecies
Kurzweil builds upon three laws:
Law of Time and Chaos in a process, the time interval between phenomena expands or contracts in proportion to the amount of existing chaos. This means that the relevant events grow with increasing order, or on the contrary, decrease with increasing chaos.
Increase Act Chaos: while chaos increases exponentially, the time slows down exponentially. That is, the time interval between events is widening ..
Law of Accelerated Returns: As order exponentially increases, time exponentially speeds up. That is, the interval between events is shortened as the time Moore's Law transcurre.La saying that the processing power of computers reaches double its capacity every two years would be an example of this trend.
Of these 3 laws Kurzweil draws the following conclusions: A process of evolution (life, or intelligence, say) is not a closed system. Then a evolutionary process is not satisfied the second law of thermodynamics, and therefore is able to create their own increasing order. In an evolutionary process, the order increases exponentially. Thus, according to the Law of Time and Chaos, time accelerates exponentially. Thus, the returns (valuable products of the process) accelerate. Final conclusion: the cosmic evolution (Universe closed system) slows down. Technological developments (open system) is accelerating. As evolution is subject to exponential rates, a gradual acceleration that will bring us in the near future so-called conscious machines. Implementation
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